Retail Sector Braces for Tough Holiday Season

The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.

Over the last year and a half, the Australian retail sector has been navigating what might be described as a recession, mostly indicated by declining trade figures. This downturn presents significant obstacles for retailers as they head towards one of the busiest times of the year.

In a sobering analysis by Deloitte Access Economics, partner Dave Rumbens highlights that retail spending has consistently declined over six of the previous seven quarters. This decrease is compounded by high living costs, rising interest rates, and stagnant wage growth, leading to an overall grim economic outlook.

“We’ve seen retailers struggle significantly," said Rumbens. "Real retail turnover has dropped for eight consecutive quarters, and consumer spending has barely budged at a 1.3% increase over the past 12 months.”

Data reveals that the national real GDP growth up to March was just 1.1%, the lowest rate outside pandemic years since the 90s. According to Rumbens, this is a clear signal that Australia’s retail industry has been in a persistent recession for 18 months.

Despite the bleak outlook, this contraction in the retail sector is not surprising, given the weakening job market and the rising number of business insolvencies. “On a per capita basis, the reality is even harsher with real per capita retail spending shrinking by 2.5% compared to last year and further declining by 6.3% since June 2022,” explained Rumbens.

The "economic horror show" does not solely impact retailers; it reflects a broader economic malaise. With real consumer spending on retail down by 0.6% over the year to June, Rumbens predicts a difficult period ahead, though he remains hopeful that future years might bring some relief.

The Deloitte report underscores that new financial relief measures, including energy bill subsidies and tax cuts, might help increase disposable income and improve retail turnover. “While retailers should brace for continued challenges through the holiday season, we anticipate some gradual recovery," said Rumbens. Predictive figures show real retail turnover growth potentially rising from 0.3% in 2024 to 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026.

The recent monthly Consumer Price Index report for July shows inflation easing down to 3.5%, and underlying inflation dipping to 3.8%. Such signs might be initial indicators of economic stabilization, offering a glimmer of hope for Australian retailers.

Amidst this “new normal” of cautious and value-focused consumer behavior, the path to recovery might be slow, but not unattainable. Retailers who can adapt to the evolving economic landscape will be better positioned to overcome the tumultuous times still expected before a more stable future in 2025-26.

Published:Sunday, 1st Sep 2024
Author: Paige Estritori

Please Note: We do not endorse any specific products or companies. Some content is sourced from third parties, including press releases, and may not be independently verified for accuracy or completeness.

Share this news item:

Finance News

Clear

Cigno Australia and BSF Solutions Penalised $7 Million for Unlawful Payday Lending Practices

05 May 2026: Paige Estritori

In a significant development for consumer protection, the Federal Court has imposed a total of $7 million in fines on Cigno Australia and BSF Solutions, along with their respective directors, for operating an illegal payday lending scheme. This ruling underscores the Australian Securities and Investments Commission's (ASIC) commitment to safeguarding consumers from predatory financial practices. - read more

APRA Implements 20% Cap on High Debt-to-Income Home Loans to Curb Financial Risks

05 May 2026: Paige Estritori

The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) has announced a new policy aimed at mitigating financial risks associated with high household debt. Effective 1 February 2026, authorised deposit-taking institutions (ADIs) are restricted to issuing no more than 20% of new home loans to borrowers with a debt-to-income (DTI) ratio of six times or more. This cap applies separately to both owner-occupier and investor loans. - read more

Commonwealth Bank Achieves Record $5.45 Billion Half-Year Profit Amidst Housing Market Surge

05 May 2026: Paige Estritori

The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) has reported a record half-year cash profit of $5.45 billion, marking a 6% increase from the previous year. This impressive financial performance is largely attributed to a surge in investor lending, reflecting the current dynamics of Australia's housing market. - read more

Understanding APRA's New Mortgage Lending Limits

27 Apr 2026: Paige Estritori

The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) has announced a significant policy change aimed at enhancing the stability of the housing market. Effective from February 2026, APRA will implement a cap limiting banks to issuing no more than 20% of new home loans to borrowers with a debt-to-income (DTI) ratio exceeding six times their income. This measure applies separately to both owner-occupier and investor loans. - read more

NAB's Forecast: Rising Bad Debts in a Volatile Economy

27 Apr 2026: Paige Estritori

National Australia Bank (NAB) has issued a cautionary statement regarding an anticipated increase in bad debts, attributing this outlook to mounting global instability and a fragile domestic economy. The bank expects credit impairment charges to reach approximately $706 million for the first half of 2026, marking an increase of around $300 million from previous forecasts. - read more

Click for more Finance News