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RBA's Tug of War with Australia's Market Growth

As Australia's Reserve Bank grapples with economic challenges, its decisive interest rate hikes have led to a contraction in demand, achieving their intended result but with considerable impact on the private sector.

The private sector, a critical component of the nation's economy, has been particularly hard-hit. Industries such as construction and hospitality have seen a surge in insolvencies over the past two years, reflecting the broader struggle within this sector.

Job creation paints a stark picture of this downturn. Since the first quarter of 2023, only 91,433 jobs have emerged in the market-driven sectors, vastly outnumbered by the rise in the civilian population by 956,000 during the same period.

However, the larger economic narrative reveals a different trend. The overall demand across Australia remains relatively robust, primarily buoyed by the thriving non-market sector, which includes government activities and significant net overseas migration.

This divergence has been highlighted by Alex Joiner from IFM Investors, who notes that the non-market sector has generated 624,574 jobs since Q1 2023. This represents a striking 87% of the country's total job growth and is largely attributed to the expansion of initiatives like the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS).

The dichotomy extends to GDP growth as well. Public sector spending is the primary driver of Australia's gross domestic product during this period, overshadowing the private sector's stagnation.

Independent economist Tarric Brooker describes the current situation as "burnout economics," where the Reserve Bank's efforts to cool the economy with elevated interest rates are met with increased public spending by government bodies.

Such significant public sector expansion is affecting productivity negatively. Australia's recent performance in labor productivity places it among the lower ranks compared to other advanced economies, raising concerns about long-term economic sustainability.

If evaluating the market sector alone, the RBA might have opted to lower interest rates; however, the overall economic picture necessitates a broader view. The non-market sector's unprecedented growth has counteracted the central bank's measures to temper demand and inflation.

The original analysis, sourced from the Australian Financial Review, fundamentally underscores the conflict between the RBA's intention to control inflation and the government's expansionary fiscal policies, which continue to bolster the non-market sector, leaving the private sector in a recessionary state.

Published:Tuesday, 21st Jan 2025
Source: Paige Estritori

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