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Adjustable-Rate Mortgage (ARM):
A type of mortgage in which the interest rate applied on the outstanding balance varies throughout the life of the loan.

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US Federal Reserve Rate Decision Grips Australian Investors

The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.

The upcoming interest rate decision by the US Federal Reserve is creating significant anticipation among Australian investors.

As the announcement is set for Thursday, the market is particularly keen on understanding the future direction beyond the expected maintenance of the current cash rate, which Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has previously indicated for May.

Anticipation is rife regarding potential future rate cuts. Independent economist Craig James notes that while the announcement may not yield immediate effects, any deviation from an anticipated tilt towards rate cuts could disappoint US markets, subsequently affecting Australian investors.

While Commonwealth Bank economists predict a series of quarter-point rate reductions across the next four meetings, there's a possibility of the Federal Reserve adopting a cautious stance, as tariffs impact prices amidst a slowing economy that shrank by 0.3% in the March quarter. This stagflation scenario places policymakers in a predicament: to increase rates to combat inflation or to lower them in response to economic stagnation.

The Bank of England's decision on Friday holds less sway, with Australian focus remaining firmly on the US. Domestically, the Reserve Bank's rate announcement on May 20 hints at the potential for further cuts, fueled by controlled inflation figures rising by 0.7% last quarter in a volatile setting.

Additionally, newly significant monthly household spending data, soon to replace retail trade figures as the Reserve Bank's key consumer spending indicator, is due Tuesday. Modest changes in spending rates are expected to be positively received by investors, barring substantial deviation from zero.

Political dynamics are also noteworthy, as the federal election result looms. Craig James points out that anything other than a majority government complicates market certainty, creating trepidation among investors who favour stability, especially the prospect of a hung parliament with independent negotiations.

Meanwhile, on Wall Street, optimism is boosted by robust economic data and easing US-China trade tensions. The US economy added 177,000 jobs in April, exceeding forecasts, and sustaining a 4.2% unemployment rate. Consequently, US stock indices saw gains: the Dow Jones rose 564.47 points, S&P 500 increased 82.54 points, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 266.99 points.

These developments sparked a rise in Australian share futures, up by 32 points or 0.38% to 11,481, while the S&P/ASX200 saw a 1.13% increase, and the All Ordinaries climbed by 1.08%.

Published:Sunday, 4th May 2025
Source: Paige Estritori

Please Note: If this information affects you, seek advice from a licensed professional.

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Finance News

RBA's October 2025 Review: Navigating Global Financial Risks

26 Nov 2025: Paige Estritori

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has released its October 2025 Financial Stability Review, providing a comprehensive assessment of the nation's financial system amidst a backdrop of global uncertainties. The report underscores that while Australia's financial institutions remain robust, external factors pose significant risks that warrant vigilant monitoring. - read more

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Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA), the nation's largest bank by market value, has reported a modest increase in its first-quarter cash profit for 2025. This uptick is primarily attributed to robust growth in home loans and household deposits. The unaudited cash profit stands at approximately A$2.6 billion, marking a 1% rise from the previous two-quarter average and a 2% increase compared to the same period last year. - read more

Major Banks Rethink Mortgage Strategies Amid Profit Margin Squeeze

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Australia's leading banks-Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA), Westpac, National Australia Bank (NAB), and ANZ-are actively reducing their dependence on mortgage brokers. This strategic shift aims to bolster profit margins that have been under pressure due to lower interest rates, rising operational costs, and intense market competition. - read more

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