Retail Sector Braces for Tough Holiday Season

The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.

Over the last year and a half, the Australian retail sector has been navigating what might be described as a recession, mostly indicated by declining trade figures. This downturn presents significant obstacles for retailers as they head towards one of the busiest times of the year.

In a sobering analysis by Deloitte Access Economics, partner Dave Rumbens highlights that retail spending has consistently declined over six of the previous seven quarters. This decrease is compounded by high living costs, rising interest rates, and stagnant wage growth, leading to an overall grim economic outlook.

“We’ve seen retailers struggle significantly," said Rumbens. "Real retail turnover has dropped for eight consecutive quarters, and consumer spending has barely budged at a 1.3% increase over the past 12 months.”

Data reveals that the national real GDP growth up to March was just 1.1%, the lowest rate outside pandemic years since the 90s. According to Rumbens, this is a clear signal that Australia’s retail industry has been in a persistent recession for 18 months.

Despite the bleak outlook, this contraction in the retail sector is not surprising, given the weakening job market and the rising number of business insolvencies. “On a per capita basis, the reality is even harsher with real per capita retail spending shrinking by 2.5% compared to last year and further declining by 6.3% since June 2022,” explained Rumbens.

The "economic horror show" does not solely impact retailers; it reflects a broader economic malaise. With real consumer spending on retail down by 0.6% over the year to June, Rumbens predicts a difficult period ahead, though he remains hopeful that future years might bring some relief.

The Deloitte report underscores that new financial relief measures, including energy bill subsidies and tax cuts, might help increase disposable income and improve retail turnover. “While retailers should brace for continued challenges through the holiday season, we anticipate some gradual recovery," said Rumbens. Predictive figures show real retail turnover growth potentially rising from 0.3% in 2024 to 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026.

The recent monthly Consumer Price Index report for July shows inflation easing down to 3.5%, and underlying inflation dipping to 3.8%. Such signs might be initial indicators of economic stabilization, offering a glimmer of hope for Australian retailers.

Amidst this “new normal” of cautious and value-focused consumer behavior, the path to recovery might be slow, but not unattainable. Retailers who can adapt to the evolving economic landscape will be better positioned to overcome the tumultuous times still expected before a more stable future in 2025-26.

Published:Sunday, 1st Sep 2024
Author: Paige Estritori

Please Note: We do not endorse any specific products or companies. Some content is sourced from third parties, including press releases, and may not be independently verified for accuracy or completeness.

Share this news item:

Finance News

Clear

Key Takeaways from the 2026-27 Australian Federal Budget

29 May 2026: Paige Estritori

The Australian Federal Budget for 2026-27, announced on 12 May 2026, introduces several significant changes that will impact the financial landscape for many Australians. Key highlights include: - read more

APRA's New Cap on High Debt-to-Income Home Loans Explained

29 May 2026: Paige Estritori

The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) has announced a significant policy change aimed at mitigating risks in the housing market. Effective from 1 February 2026, APRA has introduced a cap limiting banks to issuing no more than 20% of new home loans to borrowers with a debt-to-income (DTI) ratio exceeding six times their income. This measure applies separately to owner-occupier and investor loans, reflecting APRA's commitment to maintaining financial stability. - read more

Understanding the RBA's Recent Cash Rate Hike to 4.35%

21 May 2026: Paige Estritori

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has raised the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.35% during its May 2026 meeting. This marks the third consecutive rate hike this year, following increases in February and March. The decision aims to address persistent inflationary pressures within the Australian economy. - read more

How Major Banks Are Responding to the RBA's Latest Rate Increase

21 May 2026: Paige Estritori

Following the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) decision to raise the cash rate to 4.35% on May 5, 2026, Australia's major banks have announced they will pass on the full 0.25% increase to their customers. This move affects both variable home loan rates and savings accounts. - read more

The Growing Impact of Interest Rate Hikes on Australian Mortgage Holders

21 May 2026: Paige Estritori

The Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) recent decision to raise the cash rate to 4.35% has intensified financial pressures on Australian households, particularly mortgage holders. This marks the third consecutive rate hike in 2026, contributing to increased mortgage repayments and heightened financial stress. - read more

Click for more Finance News