Markets Brace for Trumpflation as Rate Cut Mirage Fades
Markets Brace for Trumpflation as Rate Cut Mirage Fades
1
The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.
As Donald Trump embarks on his second presidential term, investors are shifting focus from a prolonged rate reduction period to what is being called 'Trumpflation'.
This marks a notable shift towards anticipating inflationary pressures under Trump's pro-growth policies.
Damien Hennessy, the Head of Asset Allocation at Zenith Investment Partners, highlights this change in sentiment as investors foresee potential inflation due to Trump's economic agenda coupled with record-high U.S. debt levels. Such dynamics could further intensify market volatility.
"Bond yields are climbing because the underlying U.S. economy has surpassed expectations, running into disinflationary headwinds seen in the last 12 to 18 months," Hennessy remarked. "This situation is now pressuring U.S. equity market valuations."
Reflecting on recent trends, back in September, low bond yields had investors bracing for a recession, with predictions for interest rates dropping to 2.8% by early 2026. Current expectations, however, have shifted towards a rate increase nearing 4%. The market has transitioned from forecasting up to nine cuts to possibly just one or two, signifying a significant turnaround.
Hennessy noted a rise in U.S. 10-year Treasury yields to 4.8%, impacting both the stock and bond markets. Concurrently, the U.S. dollar's rise has led to a depreciation of the Australian dollar to US62 cents.
"Market dynamics, driven by the anticipated rapid enactment of many of Trump's policies in 2025, hinge on sustained economic growth around 2.8%," explained Hennessy. "Yet, this optimism may face challenges as not all policies may be quickly executed as some expect."
With bond yields nearing 5%, Hennessy posits that bonds could offer substantial value for long-term investors, prompting a reconsideration of portfolio compositions to include bonds and duration. He added, "Until now, rising bond yields have been largely ignored by equity markets, but there comes a threshold where they begin to challenge equity valuations significantly."
The correlation between high bond yields and reduced risk premiums in equities necessitates confidence in continued earnings growth. Hennessy anticipates that the tension between bond yields and equity valuations will dominate market discussions throughout 2025.
Addressing the Australian market, Hennessy observed that local conditions remain challenging. "Valuations domestically are stretched, confronting Australian equities with a difficult environment. The sentiment may benefit slightly from a rate cut, but overall, the Australian share market faces considerable challenges."
The insights provided in this article are based on an analysis originally reported by Yasmine Raso on January 22, 2025.
Published:Wednesday, 22nd Jan 2025 Source: Paige Estritori
Please Note: If this information affects you, seek advice from a licensed professional.
Loan Market Group's (LMG) Asset Finance Exchange (AFX) has achieved approximately $80 million in settlements within its inaugural year, underscoring the robust growth of Australia's asset finance market. The platform connects mortgage brokers with asset finance specialists, facilitating streamlined access to asset finance solutions. - read more
National Australia Bank (NAB) has reported a cash profit of A$7.09 billion (US$4.6 billion) for the year ending September 30, 2025, reflecting a stable financial performance. Despite this, CEO Andrew Irvine has identified the housing crisis as Australia's most pressing societal and policy challenge, advocating for expedited decision-making to stimulate economic growth and enhance housing availability. - read more
The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) has conducted a review of 100 financial advice cases related to self-managed superannuation funds (SMSFs), uncovering that 27% of these cases could cause serious harm to clients' retirement savings. Additionally, 62% of the advice provided failed to meet the legal standard of acting in clients' best interests. - read more
Recent data indicates a notable increase in calls to financial helplines across Australia, coinciding with the Australian Taxation Office's (ATO) intensified debt recovery initiatives. This trend underscores the growing financial strain on individuals and small businesses grappling with tax debts. - read more
Australian businesses are increasingly turning to financial brokers to navigate the complexities of debt management amid rising insolvency rates. In November 2024, business insolvencies surged to 70% above the historical average, highlighting the urgent need for effective debt strategies. - read more
Creating a family budget might sound daunting, but it’s an essential step toward financial wellness. It’s about understanding where your money comes from and where it goes, allowing you to make informed decisions about your spending and savings. A well-planned budget can be the key to reducing financial stress and ensuring a secure future for your family. - read more
Managing personal debt effectively is crucial for maintaining financial stability. Debt, when left unchecked, can quickly spiral out of control, leading to financial stress and a host of other problems. - read more
When it comes to managing your finances, planning for the unexpected is a crucial part of staying on top of your budget. An emergency fund serves as your financial safety net, poised to offer support when unforeseen expenses arise. These funds are specifically set aside to cover unexpected costs, like medical emergencies, car repairs, or urgent home maintenance issues. - read more
Welcome to Financial Planning 101: How to Get Ahead of Your Debt! If you're feeling overwhelmed by your financial situation, you're not alone. Many people struggle with managing debt and finding ways to achieve financial stability. - read more
In a world marked by economic uncertainties and the ever-mounting cost of living, the importance of a sound family budget cannot be overstated. Today's economic climate necessitates not just prudent but strategic financial planning. With the right budget in place, families can navigate the choppy waters of their finances, avoiding the all-too-common pitfalls of overspending and under-saving. - read more
