RBA Expected to Maintain Current Interest Rate Amid Economic Jitters
RBA Expected to Maintain Current Interest Rate Amid Economic Jitters
1
The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.
Tuesday's meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is anticipated to maintain the current cash rate at 4.35%.
However, borrowers are being advised to brace themselves for possible future rate hikes as the board remains cautious about future economic shifts.
According to Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics at Commonwealth Bank, the rate is likely to stay the same for now, but the RBA’s stance might still be open to future changes based on evolving economic data. "We expect no changes to the cash rate but the board will likely state that it remains vigilant on potential inflationary pressures," Aird predicts.
Should Aird's projections hold true, the RBA would keep the rate at a 12-year high, aiming to bring inflation down to its 2-3% target by mid-2026.
"The likelihood of a rate change is minimal," Aird noted, stressing that RBA Governor Michele Bullock usually echoes the same sentiment about remaining alert to inflation risks while acknowledging GDP growth uncertainties.
Relief washed over Australians on Wednesday when the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June revealed a slight increase from 3.6% to 3.8%, which, while still higher than RBA's goal, aligns with their forecasts. More crucially, the core inflation rate-or the trimmed mean CPI-dipped slightly from 4% to 3.9%.
The quarterly August Statement of Monetary Policy, to be released concurrently with the cash rate announcement, includes the federal government’s $300 energy rebate. Stephen Wu of CommBank suggests this could potentially lead the RBA to revise headline inflation figures downward, while predictions for the underlying CPI would likely remain static.
"The statement will probably reaffirm that the path for interest rates remains uncertain," Wu wrote, acknowledging any favorable inflation data would still keep the existing narrative intact and deter immediate changes in policy.
This cautionary approach persists despite predictions from some economists about a possible rate decrease before Christmas. Financial services website RateCity has advised borrowers to acquaint themselves with the prospect of another rate hike, given the stubborn nature of inflation.
RateCity’s research director, Sally Tindall, highlighted that even a modest rise of 25 basis points would add approximately $75 to monthly payments on a $500,000 mortgage, accumulating to a total of $1,285 in increased payments since May 2022.
For instance, those with a $750,000 mortgage would face monthly increases of around $112, pushing the total rise in payments to $1,928 during the same period.
"This scenario aligns well within the RBA’s planned timeline but also underscores the urgency should inflation rates not decline soon," Tindall said, urging vigilance and preparedness among borrowers.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers has avoided making specific predictions ahead of Tuesday’s RBA decision, despite acknowledging that the recent inflation readings showed encouraging signs amid continuing cost-of-living challenges.
Shadow Treasurer Angus Taylor, meanwhile, has criticized the government’s spending habits, blaming increased government expenditure for feeding inflation. "The government must complement the RBA’s efforts by controlling fiscal policy, and their failure to do so leaves Australia lagging behind other G10 countries," he said.
For ongoing updates, you can visit the original publication on TheIntercept.com.
Published:Monday, 5th Aug 2024 Source: Paige Estritori
Please Note: If this information affects you, seek advice from a licensed professional.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has released its October 2025 Financial Stability Review, providing a comprehensive assessment of the nation's financial system amidst a backdrop of global uncertainties. The report underscores that while Australia's financial institutions remain robust, external factors pose significant risks that warrant vigilant monitoring. - read more
In a significant development within Australia's energy sector, Santos Limited's Chief Financial Officer (CFO), Sherry Duhe, has resigned after a brief tenure of one year. Duhe's departure is attributed to an 'untenable leadership environment' and irreconcilable differences with CEO Kevin Gallagher, raising questions about the company's internal governance and strategic direction. - read more
Australia's labor market demonstrated remarkable resilience in October 2025, with a net gain of 42,200 jobs, significantly surpassing expectations. This robust growth led to a decline in the unemployment rate from 4.5% to 4.3%, marking a reversal from the previous four-year high. The increase was predominantly driven by the addition of 55,300 full-time positions, indicating a strengthening in job quality and stability. - read more
Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA), the nation's largest bank by market value, has reported a modest increase in its first-quarter cash profit for 2025. This uptick is primarily attributed to robust growth in home loans and household deposits. The unaudited cash profit stands at approximately A$2.6 billion, marking a 1% rise from the previous two-quarter average and a 2% increase compared to the same period last year. - read more
Australia's leading banks-Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA), Westpac, National Australia Bank (NAB), and ANZ-are actively reducing their dependence on mortgage brokers. This strategic shift aims to bolster profit margins that have been under pressure due to lower interest rates, rising operational costs, and intense market competition. - read more
Welcome to our comprehensive guide where we aim to debunk common myths surrounding debt consolidation and debt reduction. This blog post serves as a beacon of clarity for those who find themselves navigating through the choppy waters of financial jargon and conflicting information. - read more
High-interest debt can feel like a relentless cycle for many in Australia, often making it challenging to gain financial ground. Whether it's credit card debt, personal loans, or other forms of borrowing, the compounded interest can quickly become overwhelming. Fortunately, debt negotiation presents a viable solution for those caught in this dilemma, offering a ray of hope to reduce financial burden. - read more
Budgeting is the process of creating a plan to manage your money. Essentially, it allows you to allocate your income towards expenses, savings, and other financial goals. By keeping track of where your money goes, budgeting helps you ensure that you are not overspending and are prepared for future financial needs. - read more
When it comes to managing your finances, planning for the unexpected is a crucial part of staying on top of your budget. An emergency fund serves as your financial safety net, poised to offer support when unforeseen expenses arise. These funds are specifically set aside to cover unexpected costs, like medical emergencies, car repairs, or urgent home maintenance issues. - read more
Welcome to our blog, where we're dedicated to helping you make the most of your financial journey. Today, we're going to delve into an important aspect of financial health: tracking your progress after debt consolidation. - read more
