We are a proud member of the Financial Services Online network!
Connect with us on your favourite social media platform for the latest financial news, views, tips, tricks, resources and information.
|
|
|
|
A statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for a given security or market index. Higher volatility indicates higher risk.
Australia's Path Out of Recession: A Long Road Ahead
Australia's Path Out of Recession: A Long Road Ahead
A significant contributor to this decline has been the household sector. By the second quarter of 2024, there was a notable 2.4% reduction in real per capita household consumption from its peak level.
Alarmingly, real per capita household disposable income experienced an even steeper drop, plunging by approximately 8%, as shown in national accounts data. This marks the largest recorded decrease in Australia’s history.
In its latest economic outlook, encapsulated in the Red Book for October, Westpac predicts a slow recovery process from this recession. They highlight the harsh fall in per capita disposable income, which their analysis pegs at a dramatic 10% drop.
According to Westpac, “The combined effect of rising income tax payments, higher interest and the surge in inflation has produced a 4.8% drop in aggregate terms since Sep 2021 and an eye-watering 10% plunge in per capita terms.”
Westpac draws a stark comparison to the early 1990s recession, stating, “That is about double the size of the decline seen during the recession in the early-1990s (when the average mortgage interest rate was 15% and the unemployment rate spiked 4ppts on its way to an eventual peak of over 11%).”
There is a slightly improving consumer mood, bolstered by tax cuts and other governmental aid, and an optimistic shift in expectations for interest rates. “The consumer mood has become considerably less bleak, buoyed on the one hand by the additional cash in hand as tax cuts and other support measures flow through, and on the other by turning expectations for interest rates.”
Commenting on consumer sentiment, Westpac notes, “The most striking sentiment shift over the last three months has again been around consumer expectations for interest rates. The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Mortgage Rate Expectations Index fell by a third between July and October.”
Despite these modest shifts in consumer sentiment, Westpac cautions that full economic recovery may proceed at a gradual pace. “The medium-term recovery process looks likely to be a slow one,” they warn.
Factors contributing to this sluggish recovery include a gentle easing cycle by the Reserve Bank of Australia, the slow rebound of household disposable incomes, and reduced use of savings reserves accrued during the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, deceleration in population growth poses another challenge.
Ultimately, Westpac concludes that despite some encouraging developments, the path to consumer recovery remains extensive. “Despite some more promising signs, the consumer recovery still has a long way to go.”
These insights and forecasts, grounded in Westpac’s research and national data, highlight the complex road to recovery facing Australia today, encouraging consumers and policymakers alike to brace for a protracted economic landscape.
Published:Friday, 1st Nov 2024
Source: Paige Estritori
Share this news item:
| Overheads on Enhanced Vetting Could Ratchet Up Wholesale Fund Costs 07 Nov 2024: Paige Estritori The prospect of intensified scrutiny in confirming wholesale investor status could potentially tip the balance of competitiveness away from wholesale funds. According to recent commentary from the Financial Services Council (FSC), implementing added verification processes might impact these funds' ability to compete effectively. - read more |
| RBA Chief Under Fire: Decision on Rate Cuts in the Spotlight 07 Nov 2024: Paige Estritori Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock is set to face intense scrutiny over the central bank's conservative approach to cutting interest rates, as apprehensions about inflation persist in Australia. During a regular parliamentary session, Bullock’s policies will draw pointed questions from lawmakers. - read more |
| The Dwindling Australian Dream: Home Ownership Beyond Reach? 06 Nov 2024: Paige Estritori Recent insights from PropTrack have painted a bleak picture of Australian housing affordability, reaching unprecedented lows. In a market where a typical household makes just over $112,000 annually, a mere 14% of homes sold are within their budget. This dwindling accessibility starkly highlights the challenges for would-be homeowners today. - read more |
| CFS Launches New Advisory Initiative with Viridian 05 Nov 2024: Paige Estritori Colonial First State (CFS) is reshaping personal finance support by engaging with Viridian Advisory. This initiative aims to aid FirstChoice superannuation, pension, and investment members seeking guidance without ongoing financial advisement. The collaboration brings a novel approach to receive one-time, topic-focused advice tailored to individual needs. - read more |
| NSW Takes Decisive Steps Against Unlawful Merchant Fee Practices 04 Nov 2024: Paige Estritori The New South Wales (NSW) Government is taking robust measures to rectify years of unlawful merchant fee surcharges on customer transactions. Despite ongoing legal concerns, these fees persisted for nearly a decade, a legacy of policy directives laid out by the former Liberal-National government. - read more |
| Debt Negotiation 101: How to Lower Interest Rates and Reduce Payments High-interest debt can feel like a relentless cycle for many in Australia, often making it challenging to gain financial ground. Whether it's credit card debt, personal loans, or other forms of borrowing, the compounded interest can quickly become overwhelming. Fortunately, debt negotiation presents a viable solution for those caught in this dilemma, offering a ray of hope to reduce financial burden. - read more
|
| How to Create a Realistic Family Budget: A Step-by-Step Guide Creating a family budget might sound daunting, but it’s an essential step toward financial wellness. It’s about understanding where your money comes from and where it goes, allowing you to make informed decisions about your spending and savings. A well-planned budget can be the key to reducing financial stress and ensuring a secure future for your family. - read more
|
| How to Craft a Foolproof Financial Strategy for Debt Management Managing debt is a crucial aspect of maintaining financial well-being, yet it can often feel like a daunting task. Understanding how debt works and its potential impact on your life is the first step toward gaining control of your finances. In this section, we will delve into the intricacies of debt and outline why a solid financial strategy is essential for effective debt management. - read more
|
| Monitoring Your Progress: Tracking Financial Goals Post-Debt Consolidation Welcome to our blog, where we're dedicated to helping you make the most of your financial journey. Today, we're going to delve into an important aspect of financial health: tracking your progress after debt consolidation. - read more
|
| Smart Budgeting: Building a Financially Stable Future Many Australians today find themselves navigating the choppy waters of financial instability. The burden of debt weighs heavily, affecting everything from daily stress levels to long-term planning. High interest rates, unexpected expenses, and the seductive ease of credit cards contribute to a culture of borrowing that can lead to a precarious financial situation for many. In this introduction, we explore how smart budgeting is not just about scraping by, but laying the foundations for a financially stable future. - read more
|
|
Managing Your Credit Card Debt Wisely in Tough Economic Times In light of the current economic challenges facing many Australians, managing credit card debt has become more crucial than ever. With rising living costs and financial uncertainty, accruing debt on high-interest credit cards can quickly escalate from a manageable inconvenience to a stressful financial burden. - read more
|
|
|
How to Craft a Foolproof Financial Strategy for Debt Management Managing debt is a crucial aspect of maintaining financial well-being, yet it can often feel like a daunting task. Understanding how debt works and its potential impact on your life is the first step toward gaining control of your finances. In this section, we will delve into the intricacies of debt and outline why a solid financial strategy is essential for effective debt management. - read more
|