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Asset Allocation:
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RBA's Hawkish Stance Leaves Homeowners Awaiting Rate Cut Relief

The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has maintained the cash rate at 3.6 per cent, a decision anticipated by economists and market participants.

However, the unexpectedly cautious rhetoric from the RBA's board and governor, Michele Bullock has prompted a rethink among analysts on the timing of future rate cuts.

Initially, economists at Commonwealth Bank predicted a rate cut in November, but now they've shifted their expectation to February following the RBA's recent tone and data releases. This adjustment comes in response to stronger-than-expected economic activity and consumer price index results, which suggest inflation might exceed the RBA's forecasts.

Belinda Allen, head of Australian economics at CBA, cited a significant uplift in trimmed mean inflation and robust consumer activity as key factors contributing to CBA's revised forecast. These indicators imply that the RBA may hold interest rates steady during the remaining meetings in 2025.

Other financial institutions are also adjusting their predictions. JP Morgan's Ben Jarman has withdrawn his call for a November rate cut, while the probability estimated by money markets has dropped from over half to approximately one-third.

Conversely, Paul Bloxham, chief economist at HSBC, retains his outlook for a rate cut in November. He acknowledges the risk of fewer cuts than previously expected and emphasises that future decisions will heavily depend on the consumer price index data set for release at the end of October.

This wait-and-see approach underscores the RBA's commitment to monitoring inflationary trends and economic data closely. For mortgage holders, this means that immediate interest rate relief may be delayed as the central bank grapples with the evolving economic landscape.

As observers await the forthcoming CPI data on 29 October, the potential for an interest rate adjustment in the coming months remains contingent on how inflationary pressures unfold.

Published:Wednesday, 1st Oct 2025
Source: Paige Estritori

Please Note: If this information affects you, seek advice from a licensed professional.

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Finance News

ATO's Intensified Debt Recovery Efforts Prompt Surge in Financial Helpline Calls

02 Nov 2025: Paige Estritori

Recent data indicates a notable increase in calls to financial helplines across Australia, coinciding with the Australian Taxation Office's (ATO) intensified debt recovery initiatives. This trend underscores the growing financial strain on individuals and small businesses grappling with tax debts. - read more

How Financial Brokers Are Easing Debt Stress for Australian Businesses

02 Nov 2025: Paige Estritori

Australian businesses are increasingly turning to financial brokers to navigate the complexities of debt management amid rising insolvency rates. In November 2024, business insolvencies surged to 70% above the historical average, highlighting the urgent need for effective debt strategies. - read more

Australians Embrace Debt Consolidation Loans Amid Rising Financial Pressures

02 Nov 2025: Paige Estritori

Amid escalating financial pressures, Australians are increasingly turning to debt consolidation loans as a strategy to manage multiple debts more effectively. Recent research indicates a 170% surge in such loan applications over the past year, with the average loan amount reaching $33,000 and some as high as $68,000. - read more

Financial Secrecy in Australian Relationships: A Growing Concern

25 Oct 2025: Paige Estritori

Recent research has unveiled a concerning trend among Australian couples: a significant portion are engaging in financial activities without their partners' knowledge. A survey conducted by Finder, involving 1,017 respondents-591 of whom are in relationships-found that over one in four (27%) are secretly accumulating debt, opening bank accounts, or gambling, all unbeknownst to their partners. - read more

Australia's Savings Crisis: Millions at Financial Risk

25 Oct 2025: Paige Estritori

A recent survey has brought to light a concerning financial reality for many Australians: 43% of the population, equivalent to approximately 9.2 million people, have less than $1,000 in their bank accounts. This statistic underscores a significant vulnerability, as even minor unexpected expenses could lead to financial distress for a substantial portion of the community. - read more

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