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RBA's Tug of War with Australia's Market Growth

The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.

As Australia's Reserve Bank grapples with economic challenges, its decisive interest rate hikes have led to a contraction in demand, achieving their intended result but with considerable impact on the private sector.

The private sector, a critical component of the nation's economy, has been particularly hard-hit. Industries such as construction and hospitality have seen a surge in insolvencies over the past two years, reflecting the broader struggle within this sector.

Job creation paints a stark picture of this downturn. Since the first quarter of 2023, only 91,433 jobs have emerged in the market-driven sectors, vastly outnumbered by the rise in the civilian population by 956,000 during the same period.

However, the larger economic narrative reveals a different trend. The overall demand across Australia remains relatively robust, primarily buoyed by the thriving non-market sector, which includes government activities and significant net overseas migration.

This divergence has been highlighted by Alex Joiner from IFM Investors, who notes that the non-market sector has generated 624,574 jobs since Q1 2023. This represents a striking 87% of the country's total job growth and is largely attributed to the expansion of initiatives like the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS).

The dichotomy extends to GDP growth as well. Public sector spending is the primary driver of Australia's gross domestic product during this period, overshadowing the private sector's stagnation.

Independent economist Tarric Brooker describes the current situation as "burnout economics," where the Reserve Bank's efforts to cool the economy with elevated interest rates are met with increased public spending by government bodies.

Such significant public sector expansion is affecting productivity negatively. Australia's recent performance in labor productivity places it among the lower ranks compared to other advanced economies, raising concerns about long-term economic sustainability.

If evaluating the market sector alone, the RBA might have opted to lower interest rates; however, the overall economic picture necessitates a broader view. The non-market sector's unprecedented growth has counteracted the central bank's measures to temper demand and inflation.

The original analysis, sourced from the Australian Financial Review, fundamentally underscores the conflict between the RBA's intention to control inflation and the government's expansionary fiscal policies, which continue to bolster the non-market sector, leaving the private sector in a recessionary state.

Published:Tuesday, 21st Jan 2025
Source: Paige Estritori

Please Note: If this information affects you, seek advice from a licensed professional.

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Australian Borrowers Turn to Refinancing Amidst Rising Mortgage Arrears

28 Dec 2025: Paige Estritori

Recent data indicates a notable increase in mortgage refinancing across Australia, driven by borrowers seeking improved loan terms in response to escalating arrears, particularly among substantial loans. This trend underscores the financial pressures many Australians are currently facing. - read more

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ASIC's Comprehensive Review Targets Debt Management and Credit Repair Firms

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The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) has announced a thorough review of the debt management and credit repair sector, aiming to assess compliance with legal requirements and enhance consumer protection, particularly for individuals facing financial difficulties. - read more

APRA's New Cap on High Debt-to-Income Home Loans: What Borrowers Need to Know

20 Dec 2025: Paige Estritori

The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) has announced a significant policy change aimed at mitigating risks in the housing market. Effective February 2026, APRA will impose a cap on high debt-to-income (DTI) home loans, limiting such loans to 20% of new home lending. This measure applies to both owner-occupiers and investors, with an exemption for new housing developments. - read more

ASIC's Review of Debt Management Firms: Ensuring Consumer Protection

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The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) has announced a comprehensive review of the debt management and credit repair sector, citing concerns about consumer protection, particularly for those facing financial difficulties. This initiative aims to assess how approximately 100 licensed businesses in the sector comply with legal requirements and to examine the range of business models used by these firms. - read more

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